of thundergods and goodbyes

Tue, 15 Dec 2009 04:55:08 GMT

http://weaktight.com/1791335

turn bet is bad for two reasons: if aces are good then we can go for a free SD, as this is a worse never calls spot. if we were IP or we had complete air then betting wouldn't be as bad. furthermore, the turn completed straights and since flop was checked, many straights will call at least one street.

Tue, 15 Dec 2009 03:10:25 GMT

http://weaktight.com/1791217:

flop check standard, on the turn when he c/c's, a normal villain will never have a straight.

OTR because we have almost zero showdown value, we need to bet and continue repping our straight (which makes sense given our turn bet).

Tue, 08 Dec 2009 02:10:52 GMT

http://weaktight.com/1768211:

flop is super dry:, when flop is dry, villain can have only 7xxx, Jxxx, or an overpair (queens, or kings)

OTR: he can't call anything other than a very, very small bet. my range is also very small here (given flush backdoored) so he can't really call anything bigger than half-pot. a smaller bet is superior

http://weaktight.com/1768216: opposite of previous hand almost

flop very dry, here, villain can have Axxx, Txxx many times. when turn comes 6, it is so dry that any Ax or overpair will CONTINUE to peel. betting bigger on the turn would be best

OTR: any "draws" have missed so all Ax (especially) and somewhat stronger hands will be suspicious. a big bet will be called because river missed all draws and his calling range mostly has made hands. since river doesn't beat those semi-made hands (like the previous hand where the river flush beats all of them) he can call.

Tue, 08 Dec 2009 00:53:21 GMT

http://weaktight.com/1768123: bad 2-barrel card?

when villain calls flop on AK4 type flop, generally they're peeling with a strong Axxx.

a flop like A4J that pairs the J on the turn would be easier to barrel, but with a low-pairing turn (A4J - 4), villain will be unlikely to fold their Axxx.

if villain is peeling with a high rundown or wheel draw anyway, we're betting very thinly with not much equity (just bare kings). so a check here is probably better with some SD value when he has higher equity draws he's not folding on the turn, and obviously better made hands he's not folding to the [A H L] [L] texture board

cbet spots

Thu, 03 Dec 2009 08:27:35 GMT

http://weaktight.com/1751735 : villain is LP.

probably not a great c-bet spot. if called, unsafe turns include:

4, 6, 7, 9, T, J, and any heart. A, 2, 3, 5, 8, Q, K are probably safe. but board texture has a lot of spread cards, meaning it reaches a huge range of hands that make future barrel very uncomfortable. which turn card is safe to bet? basically not enough dry cards to successfully 2 barrel

similar to video hand

value

Thu, 03 Dec 2009 08:27:22 GMT

http://weaktight.com/1751677 : flop top set, raise, turn boat and fail to get a tight player to call

similar lines: none, i would only do this with a FH

when he just flats flop on this texture, he almost always has a combo draw. the best thing to do is to check behind so he can complete his draw and for me to bet river and get value out of all his hits.

i bet super small on turn and he folded: since i never play my bluffs like this, does that make my bluffs less credible when i bet big on the turn? or does that make this too transparent? or both?

http://weaktight.com/1751681 : i turn a straight and get two streets of value. river i bet half-pot

similar lines where i check flop, bet turn: turned straights, turned two pair or better, turned very strong combo draws, turned strong FD + pair, some strong bare FD's

flop standard. when i bet the turn, i'm repping a straight (3 combos, 78, Q8, KQ). but i could also reasonably be betting air, two pairs, sets, and new draws (FD/SD). when river comes, villain's c/c range is typically reduced to FD, some straights, some FH draws. when he checks he's indicating that his draws missed. a small bet here is probably best in that case since the majority of his turn c/c and river check range is missed stuff. the rest either won't call or will call a small bet (unless he thinks i'm bluffing). since i'm betting all my straights, betting some air (rarely), and checking everything else with SD value, my river bet has a very strong range. i therefore need to bet small to get some value.

similar river lines given flop check, turn bet, river bet:

what would i check on the river? sets, 2 pairs, pair + draws where i miss my draw but have some basic SD value

what would i bet on the river? completely missed draws, straights

interesting hands

Thu, 03 Dec 2009 08:27:15 GMT

http://weaktight.com/1751320 :

the primary range most opponents have here is a FD, which completes by the turn. since i didn't get CR'd that leaves sets out but sometimes leaves smaller 2 pairs and some straight draws or pair + straight draws in, as well as occasional overpair.

on the turn, primary draw completes, all missed draws have still missed, all AA/KK/better queens have their value damaged.

OTR: when he checks he almost never has a flush. that means he has missed draws and random pairs.

if i bet he is folding all his missed draws and sometimes calling with pairs. it is possible he calls with pairs because i almost never have a flush when i check behind turn.

if i check i beat all his missed draws anyway and i only lose to random pairs.

checking is probably the best play here as my line looks exactly like a bluff and i would never take this line with anything else except maybe AQ or AA

http://weaktight.com/1751699: pair + draw turned into two pair + gutshot + FD

similar hands with bet flop, CR turn line: strong combo draws (flopped wrap turning new FD), turned two pair with FD's, occasionally but not often turned sets, rarely flopped sets

OTF: hand is dry enough that i'd check it against a tougher opponent with some equity. against someone i want to fold i'm generally betting. when he flats he's either doing as a float to bluff turn (rarely) or he has some equity, either draw or small two pairs he doesn't want to jam flop with. rarely has big 2p or set here.

turn: since he doesn't bluff often, his range mostly is comprised of draws that haven't hit yet and some two pairs. with a CR i dominate all draws that call the CR when he calls (good), fold out all two pairs i beat (bad), keep in all hands that have me beat (bad). i also sometimes fold out 89Tx wraps that might beat me by the river.

http://weaktight.com/1751707: 3-bet pot with aces on dry high paired flop. DCB: i check flop, bet draw opening turn

villain has played a few hands but has CR'd very frequently.

hands i'd take check flop, bet turn line: aces, kings, sometimes flopped trips, sometimes FH's.

i'm probably never checking air on the flop since i have no other way to win the hand and OTF gives me highest chance to take it down.

against more aggressive opponents i should probably be c-betting trips and FH's almost all the time.

bluffs

Thu, 03 Dec 2009 08:27:04 GMT

http://weaktight.com/1751304: limped pot with a big blocker to flopped flush

how i would play this hand if i had a small flush: i would check flop, bet turn, bet smallish to HP on river

how i would play this hand if i had nut or big flush: alternate between bet and check flop, bet turn, bet 50 to 65% on river

how i would play this hand if i had complete air: bet flop, give up all other streets

how i actually played this hand: i bet flop, bet turn, gave up river.

this didn't mirror any of my standard lines which was a big mistake. if i'm gonna rep i'm left with 3-barreling or 1-shotting and giving up.

things to note: i should sometimes play my complete air like i do with big flushes. so sometimes i should bet flop, bet turn, and bet somewhat a fairly good size on the river.

http://weaktight.com/1751724 : dryish flush board, 2-barrel spot

standard spot but i should have bet bigger on the turn. the point of 2-barreling here is to push out FD's and FE improves with a bigger bet

similar hands that go bet > bet: overpairs, OP + FD, 2p's + sets

http://weaktight.com/1751742: missed draw bluff

what hands do i have that use a b > c > b line?

since i'm always checking OP on river, the only things i can have are a FH and completely missed draws.

OTR: given there was no raise on the flop, we can rule out most sets. when i check turn and no one bets to protect their hand then it is impossible for anyone to have a set and 2p's are extremely unlikely. this leaves overpairs and draws. the only hands that can call are pairs. my line doesn't make sense but it's also hard for villain to have a hand here.

some poker mistakes

Thu, 03 Dec 2009 08:26:53 GMT

http://weaktight.com/1751247: first off, probably not a good idea to be min 3-betting lags OOP anymore. anyway: on the flop this guy will 100% bet his air so that leaves him with hands that have SD value and occasionally monsters.

anything that has SD value at this point is something that beats me, so me betting the turn is really bad because

A. he never has air
B. i can't beat any non-air he has
C. anytime i bet and he DOES call he'll always have a better hand.
D. if i DO have him beat for some reason, i should be checking and trying to get a free showdown

so to add that logic up, A. he has something, B. that something always beats me, C. if i bet and he calls i can never win D. when he has nothing if i bet and he folds it's the same result as if i check and he checks

(note, we should look to label the "will only call with a hand that beats you" situation here more properly)

http://weaktight.com/1751277: bad idea to call vs a notorious 2-barreler who will attack almost every single turn no matter how scary it is. if he's attacking turns that we want to use against him then we have minimal fold equity.

don't peel without a plan, and don't plan on using scare cards defensively when opponent will use them offensively.

http://weaktight.com/1751640: another bad spot to attack turn. even with blockers, the problem becomes exacerbated when we don't raise up the flop. since he's barreling the turn almost always, we lose that street as a weapon unless we make a very costly raise, which may work but is just too risky. against more standard opponents this might work but the logic in flatting the flop is always an issue.

http://weaktight.com/1751709: flopped oesd on flush, paired flop

c-betting here is somewhat bad because if we get CR'd we fold away a lot of equity and there are a huge amount of hands that can continue (all monsters, trips, overpair + FD's, random FD's, some wraps).

with gutshot to oesd equity it's probably best to just take the free card, as monsters will wake up on the turn, missed hands stay dormant, we get extra chances to complete our draws, and we can DCB turn when checked to us.

similar hands i'd bet > bet with: sometimes trips, FH's, very strong combo draws, sometimes wraps

hands i could have here that i don't bet after seeing the turn: overpairs (including OP + FD), some trips

Mon, 23 Nov 2009 20:27:25 GMT

if i'm formatting i need to remember to keep this stuff:

1. bookmarks

2. tabmixplus options

3. noscript options

4. HM/OM settings / archived hands / hud configs / notes

5. adblockplus settings

6. documents (including pictures, downloads)

7. stuff on desktop

8. digsby/trillian preferences logs

9. add-ons to dl: adblock plus, chromatabs plus, mcafee siteadvisor, noscript, tab mix plus, yahoo mail notifier

10. both logs are hcnick

Sun, 01 Nov 2009 10:14:33 GMT

the first few statements are probably best taken facetiously:

i have major girl problems. every time i meet one that i like, something goes horribly wrong and it ends up not working out. however, i've learned how to cope. i used to get my hopes and expectations up only to be shot down regularly every flight, even if i was 5 seconds from landing safely on the airstrip. and it used to make me feel terrible that since i was the pilot, it was always my fault when i crash landed. nowadays i know better. basically, knowing i had no hope to begin with (and no, i'm not a hopeless romantic, i'm just plain hopeless) tends to make me feel better in a strange and self-condescending way. i mean, how upset can you get when you know nothing works out for you anyway right? that's how i approach things atm anyway (based on a high level of past experience, trust me).

shall i detail every major failure i've had in the past 27 years? let's see, where to begin with. oh i know, a bang...

6th grade, lauren: there was this really smart and very pretty girl that sat in front of me in class. i spoke to her every day and she genuinely seemed to like me a lot. end of year i wrote in a joking manner "see you next year (in hell)" and of course by "in hell" i meant 7th grade. she didn't get the joke and i never spoke to her again. oops. i've since then learned how to manage my words and i'm actually a very good writer. let me know if you need some paper editing.

11th grade, jodi: a new girl at our school, pretty much my type (at the time anyway). very sweet, very pretty and just plain adorable. i didn't really have the nerve to ask her to go anywhere (specially since i had no car) and i was crushed to learn she was dating someone only a couple weeks after the school year started. one day though i learned she had a fight with her then boyfriend and the following conversation transpired:

her: so yeah, i think i'm gonna see a movie. alone. do you know any good movies to watch? (and she literally bats her eyelashes at me furiously. and trust me i DO use literally in the correct sense).

me: ummmm yeah i don't know. have fun!!!

yeah, that worked out pretty much just as you figured it might.

first year of college, elizabeth: a very pretty korean girl i met in my math class. it was pretty clear she was into me and she was kinda just waiting for a chance for me to take the lead. i asked her to see a movie and she said sure, and the night i was going to pick her up she told me she lived like 30 minutes away. i told her it was too far and that i'd see her in class the next day. not surprisingly she didn't really seem to enjoy talking to me anymore after that.

a year or two ago, cheryl: a co-worker of my sister's, she was basically perfect for me. my type both physically and personality-wise. my sister gave me several chances to meet up with her and ask her out and every single time i chickened out. by the time i finally was ready she was already seeing someone. technically not as mega-fail as all the other girls i bombed out with but hey, i feel like i deserve extra points here because it's not every day you meet the girl you wish you had.

last year, christine: another not so mega-fail case since i didn't exactly know her that well, but i swear i almost had this one in the bag. i met her while looking for a new apartment and she was soooooooooooo cute, super cool and well-adjusted. i don't typically like asian girls but if i did, she was the one. i asked her out over the phone and she said yes, and she told me to keep in touch via e-mail. i tried and she replied only a couple times when i tried to arrange something, but only to say she was busy. i'm pretty sure the kicker was when i asked her and she said yes, and i replied with "really????" in the highest 6th grade squeaky voice possible. woops.

recently, sarah: a friend of a friend, the moment i met her it was electric. she was the one trying to get to know ME, and we hit it off strongly right away. she even came over to my house later with our group of friends to watch a movie, and while i didn't really have a chance to ask her out that night, we were invited to her house-warming party the next night (where of course i did nothing). i later learned that her friends and my friends were subtly trying to get us together and i was given another chance to ask her out the next week at the beach. they left us alone to swim in the ocean together and she was almost begging me to ask her out when we walked back and i just kinda was like "um lolz D:" and nothing happened.

the next time i saw her (month or so later) there was a party and i chickened out AGAIN. finally like 2 or 3 months later at the next party we held, on the way out i did ask her to hang out. she said yeah and i thought this would be my chance. but when i spoke to her on the phone a couple days later though and i found out she was seeing someone. LOL. cool.

those are some major ones and i'm sure there are tons of girls in between which i've just forgotten about. i was supposed to see sarah tonight actually for the halloween party, but given that she was already seeing someone, it'd probably just string my heart along needlessly and painfully. i was thinking that i could try to sweet talk her and be kinda aggressive still but it's probably for the better that she wasn't there. what hurts with that isn't that she's seeing someone but that i had multiple chances to be with her before that.

but you know, i just bring up what i knew before. there is no hope for me. and as usual, i'm pacified until the next cool girl i meet.

Fri, 17 Apr 2009 21:33:06 GMT

for the first time in a long, long time i have plans.

for the first time in forever, maybe ever, i have long-term plans.

for a while now i kept getting a very slow, yet gradual, growing feeling that i didn't have anything left for me here.

then i met a few friends, met someone in particular in that group of friends that actually caused me to stop and reconsider otherwise.

but i messed up. like always i guess. i broke the trust of the person who might have caused me to hold on.

i feel pretty awful about it, but if things can't be fixed, then i'll really know that i don't belong here.

to be a little less cryptic, i spoke to jessup about leaving california to go live in japan. for a year or two i guess, who knows. i'd go to teach english, which is something that would make me happy. he basically said it would be an adventure, and the thrill of being on my own is something that i should experience.

the words he said lit my heart on fire and rekindled that little feeling of packing up, and just moving on. and it reminded me of my solitude.

still, i held myself short. i wanted to go, but not if i could help and try and ease my pain of solitude. but i think i messed it up with the one person whom i thought could alleviate that loneliness.

so, now i have plans. long-term. if i'm gonna be on my own, at least i can do it in a place i wanna be. if i'm gonna be on my own, i want to be looking straight ahead while the winds of unknown come right at me.

Fri, 27 Mar 2009 01:24:57 GMT

it's been a while

i used to only write when i had some pressing issues that i couldn't get out of my head, things that no matter how many times i'd think it over, wouldn't go away.

and one day, i kinda stopped writing. but it wasn't cause i didn't like to write, or that i got bored, or whatever. i think mostly it was because for a long, long time, i was content. happy. serene, possibly.

and it's not like that anymore.

around the end of january, things kinda changed super fast for me, like a whirlwind.

my roommates and i began looking for a new place to live. i met a super cool girl that i was super determined to go out with. i began to shift a new-found focus and priority into becoming a better poker player. i was offered a job with a family friend in tv production.

i pretty much ended my run with my favorite game up until that point, and even though i'd put in all that time and energy and work and basically my soul, i was fine with letting go. i was ready to go.

so you know, what else was there for me? well, i figured i'd start to develop my social life some more. i started going out, hanging out with my sister's friends, stuff like that. and i guess that's kinda when everything started going downhill.

well, part of it. first, that girl i met, i did ask her to hang out and she did say yeah. and you know what? i was elated. cause i mean, this is me we're talking about. someone who's been a shut in for years and years pretty much. and she said to email her and keep in touch, so i did. and some time had passed and she hadn't replied, so i emailed again to see what was up, and she replied a week later saying her internet was out cause she was moving, and that she'd get back to me when things were settled.

a few weeks later i made plans to go to vegas with my roommate and my cousins and sister. as one might expect of people around my age, the only thing they wanted to do was go to clubs and go drinking, which was fine with me.

the first night of going out, i was totally fine with. no surprises there.

but the second night... well, we went to this club called XS, and in all honesty it was one of the most incredible atmospheres that i'd ever been apart of. the amount of people and the vastness of it was remarkable. and i'm not sure i have ever seen so many attractive girls in one place. but i wasn't having fun dancing or drinking. my back was aching, i was tired, feet were killing me, and i just wanted to go home.

so while winding down and just trying to get some water, my roommate was messing around and got some sticky cherry crap all over my clothes and shoes, and i just spiraled out of control from there.

i was getting increasingly agitated and i went to sit in the lobby while i was waiting for everyone, and i kinda just waited there for half an hour questioning myself, and what i was doing in such a place.

the problem was that i started thinking.

thinking to myself and what made me possibly think that this was fun.

thinking that all i really wanted to be doing was just hanging out with that girl i'd met.

thinking that there was nobody in that room really that i wanted to be next to, family, friends, pretty girls or not.

i was in a dark place, both figuratively and literally. i had a pretty blonde girl brush up against my head and apologize profusely while rubbing my head, and heh, that only made things worse.

so i said, fuck this, and walked outside to do what i told myself i wouldn't ever do in vegas: play poker. (which is kinda weird since i do it for a living, but i didn't want to go to vegas to gamble). i stood there looking at the games, trying to give myself reasons why not to play, but eventually realizing that playing was the only solace i had at the time. nobody and nothing else was there for me.

my group called me back as they finally decided to leave the club, but rather than just take off, they spent about 30 minutes trying to figure out to get home. and unfortunately, some people, and god knows why they were allowed to make decisions, couldn't comprehend simple arithmetic. they eventually decided to come up with a plan, and it was at that point that a few of them turned to me, and said we're not going home, we're going to another club, looking at me with the biggest "eff you, go fend for yourself" look i have ever seen in my life.

i swear to god i just about lost it, and if it wasn't for one person standing in the way of another, i was going to strangle someone.

so we spent another 15 minutes trying to figure out who was going where, before they finally decided on what they were doing and how i was gonna get home. we walked to the door and guess what? THEY FUCKING FORGOT THE PLAN AND DECIDED TO ARGUE FOR ANOTHER FIFTEEN MINUTES

final decision? 7 people, 1 car. awesome.

i don't remember the last time i felt so angry. but angry isn't the right word, the right word is seething.

and i was seething till i went to bed.

and when i woke up.

and for days afterward.

when it finally passed, i had this distinct dark cloud hanging over my head, and i couldn't figure out why, until i went out for st. patrick's day with some friends i had recently made.

and you know what? we went out for drinks, and sat in a quiet bar, and we laughed and joked and talked. and it was on my way home that i realized what i valued. it was on my way home, that i realized just how much i appreciated those friends.

i realized that the reason why i was miserable was because all that las vegas stuff was complete bullshit.

i realized that the reason why i was so down, was because i was annoyed that that girl never got back to me, and still hasn't.

i realized that for now, the only thing i really want in life is to hang out with someone who really understands me. that as i was sitting there in the club, then at the buffet with my cousins, then on the long ride home, then in my chair at home... i couldn't think of anyone i knew at all that really gets me.

i live a peculiar life. i play poker for about 20 hours a week, and the rest of the time i watch a lot of tv, play video games, and not so much else. and i live comfortably. but anyone on the outside looking in on me, thinking i'm happy or some kind of content, would be completely wrong.

it's kinda sad actually. the only person i ever knew that ever really had me figured out, i mean so figured out that i was more honest with him than i was to myself, is kinda not around anymore. well, he's living life with a baby and a wife and i couldn't be happier for him. but i often wonder if i'll ever know a friend like that ever again.

my whole life i've always wondered if i'd ever find a girl who is "the one." but thinking on it now, it's not really even that. i now wonder if i'll even just have a friend who can listen to me the way i need them to.

and i look at the time i spent with my family, and friends these past couple months, going out and doing stuff that i shoulda realized i didn't care for.

and i know in my heart, those people can't do anything for me. i mean, it's not that i don't love and care for the people around me. but they can't help me. that's just reality.

i face heavy pressures every single day. i feel like with the things i do, i'm pretty good at dealing with stress that most people don't have to face.

but this, this really sucks. this solitude... it's overbearing as hell, and i can't stand it. i'm not depressed, but i'm not happy. and that's the first time i've really admitted to that for as long as i can remember.

Mon, 15 Sep 2008 05:53:05 GMT

good stuff happened today

but i also learned annoying news today. not that i truly knew 100% sure that i'd end up dating her or anything like that, but the thought that i'd get there was nice. motivating. i guess thoughts are of total irrelevance when you do nothing, though.

was i really doing all that extra work for me, or for someone else? was it made all the easier because of her? don't know.

guess i'll find out soon what kind of resolve i have.

Wed, 03 Sep 2008 21:47:51 GMT

visit it!!

http://givemetherock.com/2008/09/03/insanity-unleashed-give-me-the-rock-fantasy-draft-guide/

i want one!!

Tue, 13 May 2008 03:54:19 GMT

things i want to do:

get better at:

O8
LHE
stud
razz
NLHE
PLO

how can i do this?

O8: continue posting on forums
LHE: read through at least 3 books and start reading more forums, watch more vids
stud: watch a couple videos and read some forums
razz: watch a couple vids and read some forums
NLHE: watch a lot of vids, read some new books i got, read forums
PLO: watch a couple vids, read a book, read forums

oh, and play all these games

basically i don't have nearly enough time to do what i wanna do so

i should re-prioritize as this:

O8
LHE
PLO

NLHE

stud
razz

the first group i should work on most often, second group with my free time, latter group when i have spare time. unfortunately PLO is so inconsistent i should probably think about dropping it and replacing it with NLHE.

Sun, 13 Apr 2008 08:23:56 GMT

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing Ts Kh 4h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ac Kc Tc 2c 427 467 353 0 129 0 0 0.574
Kd Qd 8h 7h 305 353 467 0 81 48 0 0.426

top 2 pair versus a flush draw.

top 2 is about 57 to 43, which is really not all that much.

assume there's no low:

Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Ts Kh 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac Kc Tc 2c 467 56.95 353 43.05 0 0.00 0.570
Kd Qd 8h 7h 353 43.05 467 56.95 0 0.00 0.43

barely any difference.

now, what if there was a flush on the flop?

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing Kh Th 4h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ac Kc Tc 2c 120 120 700 0 129 0 0 0.225
Kd Qd 8h 7h 571 700 120 0 81 48 0 0.775

flush is winning by a wide margin, and any 2 pairs should be mucked right away.

set?

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing Kh Th 4h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ks Ac Kc 2c 270 270 550 0 129 0 0 0.408
Kd Qd 8h 7h 421 550 270 0 81 48 0 0.592

much closer, but still losing pretty bad. 60 to 40. i think in limit, a call is still warranted even down to the river but i'm not sure.

and one more, set vs flush draw:

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 820 enumerated boards containing Ts Kh 4h
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
Ks Ac Kc 2c 524 564 256 0 129 0 0 0.693
Kd Qd 8h 7h 208 256 564 0 81 48 0 0.307

surprised how much better a set is versus 2 pair.

Sun, 13 Apr 2008 08:14:05 GMT

Results:

Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Ts Ah 9h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kd Qd Jd 8d 379 46.22 441 53.78 0 0.00 0.462
Kc 7c 6h 3h 441 53.78 379 46.22 0 0.00 0.538

basically, a 14 card wrap (3 kings + 3 queens + 3 jacks + 3 eights + 2 sevens) still is behind a garbage flush draw.

now assume the turn completed the straight:
Omaha Hi: 40 enumerated boards containing Ts 8c Ah 9h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kd Qd Jd 8d 31 77.50 9 22.50 0 0.00 0.775
Kc 7c 6h 3h 9 22.50 31 77.50 0 0.00 0.225

equity goes from 46% to 77.5%. it seems like the flush draw is slightly losing equity if they are calling a pot with 3 to 1 odds, but they are positive EV if it's 4 to 1 odds.

a typical hand, unraised might go something like:

1 + 2 + 2 = 5
5 + 2 + 2 = 9
9 + 4 = 13

the bet would be 4 at that point, so calling 4 to win 13 is basically slightly better than 3 to 1 odds and slightly losing.

if raised preflop:

1 + 4 + 4 = 9
9 + 2 + 2 = 13
13 + 4 = 17

bet is still 4, calling 4 to win 17 is now essentially better than 4 to 1 and definitely correct.

Wed, 09 Apr 2008 20:25:30 GMT

omg i got a new (used) car

2005 BMW 325CI coupe > 1992 325I sedan with paint coming off

anyway some notes:

omaha 8

1. in position HU against a tight player, i should be c-betting most flops and backing off most called turns if i miss. i should give more credit to a CR.

2. IP HU against a loose player, i should be v-betting more thinly, c-betting less, betting more turns to protect my hand, and checking very weak hands on the river (top pair). i should worry less about CR.

3. IP HU against an aggressive player, i should be checking behind more often on weaker hands, 3-betting flop with strong hands/draws if raised, and occasionally raising turn on air. also need to sandbag frequently to prevent them from rolling me over. if i cbet flop with a hand i want to showdown, am called, i should tend to check turns with weaker hands to avoid a CR. i can also occasionally raise for a free showdown.

Thu, 03 Apr 2008 07:33:10 GMT

Absolute Poker ( handed) Absolute Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

Final Pot:

Wed, 20 Feb 2008 06:02:00 GMT

omg i've been on a super anime rush for the past 3 weeks

watched:

kanon
full metal panic
FMP: fumoffu
FMP: the second raid

watching:
seirei no moribito
gun x sword

downloading:
rurouni kenshin
last exile
berserk
haibane renmei

LOOKING FOR MOREEEEEEEEEEEE

Sun, 03 Feb 2008 09:02:46 GMT

omgggggggggg i moved

Sun, 16 Dec 2007 03:15:54 GMT

hm, i guess that wasn't so bad. i mean, i only pretty much straight disappeared for 3 weeks.

Sat, 08 Dec 2007 07:29:47 GMT

as of today i've officially forgotten what day of the week it is...

forever...

or at least until i get a job...

Thu, 06 Dec 2007 08:56:45 GMT

2/4

then it's over

cause you know that i can